FG in crisis in CNC

An internal Fine Gael party poll published in todays Evening Echo shows the party missing out on a second seat in Cork North Central to the left. The poll suggests that Billy Kelleher of Fianna Fail, Bernard Allen of Fine Gael and Kathleen Lynch appear safe with the final seat currently resting with the second Labour candidate. The second Fine Gael candidate is expected to finish fifth. The second Fine Gael candidate is expected to be Gerry Kelly who has run in the last number of elections and came close to winning a seat in 2007, losing out to Rebel Fianna Fail TD Noel O’Flynn in the end. This poll shows O’Flynn to be in serious trouble. It also reflects the national view that Fianna Fail’s loss is Labour’s gain as the swing towards the “we stand for what you stand for” Labour party continues.

This poll, if accurate (Which I always query when its a blue-shirt poll, Frank Flannery is synonymous with publishing/ creating figures for their own benefit) spells disaster for Fine Gael in a constituency which a gain must be made. It also creates questions over Allen’s refusal to properly divide his quota in the best way for the party, something we here at scandalcentral are very serious about. Would also must wonder why Bernard Allen is still in politics when he clearly has nothing to offer the electorate, he will never  be Minister for anything. Gerry Kelly, while a hard worker and great character is likewise. Perhaps the reason why the electorate are rejecting the party is simply because the candidates are rubbish, a thought which should cross Frank Flannery, Phil Hogan and Enda Kenny’s mind. Perhaps, it’s not too late for Allen to be persuaded to “retire” to the Seanad and allow a young face like Former Lord Mayor Darragh Murphy or Cllr Pat Burton onto the ticket. Both have shown loyalty and did well in the 2009 local elections.

Either way the happiest man after this poll is John Gilroy of Labour who correctly will benefit from Sinn Fein, Socialist and other hard left transfers. One point to note is the Noel O’Flynn situation. O’Flynn has always been able to speak his mind and is known to Fianna Fail as being lethal. Perhaps they wouldn’t even mind if he did lose his seat. However to rule out O’Flynn is a bad idea. If there is only one Fianna Fail seat in CNC, does it really mean the electorate would choose an articulate, young intelligent candidate? Get real, this is Irish politics! Watch O’Flynn fight dirty to save his seat for another 5 years while Kelleher becomes yet another by-product of our dire electoral system.

My personal verdict is that once again CNC will produce fireworks and plenty of unpredictable swings.