Election 2011: Cork (Part 1)

The following are my thoughts and predictions about each Cork constituency and how it will pan out tomorrow.

Cork South Central.

Nearly 100,000 voters are eligible to vote in this sprawling urban core to Cork City. However, I don’t expect this 5 seater constituency to throw up any major surprises. Most would agree that Simon Coveney (Fine Gael) will be elected on the first count, shortly followed by Micheal Martin (Fianna Fáil) and Ciaran Lynch (Labour). The betting on the final two seats is towards both going to Fine Gael. I firmly expect the party to get at least one and probably both, meaning that Fianna Fáil’s Michael McGrath is set to lose his seat. Jerry Buttimer and Deirdre Clune will take the final two seats, however the order may surprise many people.

Verdict: FG3, FF1, Lab1

Cork North West

Easily Ireland’s most conservative constituency, this three seater will provide little or no shocks at all. Fine Gael have run three candidates in an ambitious strategy to soak up as many votes as possible. Three seats will be more than likely beyond them, however this is the only place in the country where it might happen. (Contains the death place of Michael Collins after all!) I expect Michael Creed to easily win the first seat and to be followed very closely by Derry Canty of Ballincollig. In fact, don’t be surprised if Canty is very near to a quota. Many have underestimated the former PD, however he has stormed his home area of Ballincollig. For poor Aine Collins, it appears she didn’t have the back bone to get the final seat and so yet another woman fails to get elected. Nevertheless she will be relatively close to the final seat losing out to Fianna Fáil’s Michael Moynihan.

Verdict: FG2, FF1`

Cork South West

This rural constituency provides for real entertainment, every single election. Many would argue that not one single candidate on the list is good enough to be a real TD, however three people will be returned to the 21st Dáil tomorrow. I expect Jim Daly to firmly top the poll. If FG don’t manage his vote properly then it may mean that they may not actually win a second seat here; similar to what happened in 2007 with Fianna Fáil. Nevertheless I do expect the local Fine Gael machine to move enough votes this evening in order to elect a second candidate out of the remaining two. Logic would state it to be Kevin Murphy, the only candidate from the western end of the constituency. Therefore this would mean that Noel Harrington would miss out. However I expect it to be very close for the final seat with the party probably split in two over it! For Labour, Michael McCarthy has proven twice before to be truly awful at elections, perhaps one can pin it on the lack of a local organisation? Either way, in this election, like previously he has proven that he doesn’t really have the appetite to get elected. The national Labour swing will bring him very close however! Sitting TD Christy O’Sullivan has already been written off. Running mate Denis O’Donovan, however, is expected to win a seat ahead of Labour.

Verdict: FG2 FF 1 (Barely)

(SF transfers could play a massive role in deciding who is elected)