Scandalcentral's Blog

Election 2011: Cork: My Predictions (Part 2) February 26, 2011

In the previous post I discussed the other Cork constituencies. Here I predict the rest.

Cork North Central

Fianna Fáil are in real trouble in CNC. Having won two seats in 2007, they now are facing a situation where they will be without a seat in the 31st Dáil. Polls last week were giving sole candidate Billy Kelleher just 13% of the vote. It’s my belief, that even though I do believe he is transfer toxic and will be scrapping it out, he will win the final seat. Kathleen Lynch will top the poll, despite her uselessness and will be followed by one of the Fine Gael candidates either Dara Murphy or Pat Burton. I personally believe Murphy is the better candidate and I’m assuming the voters of CNC will see this. The final seat will be taken by Sinn Féin’s Johnathan O’Brien. Labour’s John Gilroy is fancied by many due to the rise in Labour support in the constituency, however the failure of the party to manage the vote will mean in my opinion result in just one seat. For Fine Gael, I don’t believe they have the percentages to bring home two seats in North Central. While its possible, I think its unlikely.

Verdict: 1Lab, 1FF, 1FG, 1SF

Cork East

Cork East for most is a very exciting constituency mainly down to the fact that Fine Gael are running three candidates. The party currently has one TD in the form of David Stanton. I expect him to re-elected, more than likely on the first count. I do believe that there should be a second Fine Gael seat in the constituency, however I’m very unsure as to whether it will be Tom Barry or Pa O’Driscoll. Based on geographical issues I’m assuming it will be O’Driscoll. Labour’s Sean Sherlock is expected to attract a huge vote in Mallow. This will take from Barry’s vote and hence I believe that O’Driscoll will be ahead on the first count and that this should be enough. It should be noted that if Barry does lose out, there easily could be a lot of hurt people in the Barry clan, who were upset I’m sure when the Fine Gael party added O’Driscoll to the ticket. I’m expecting fireworks!

I don’t believe Labour will win a second seat, purely down to the gross error they have made in putting forward a candidate too old to connect to the electorate. They also have not managed their vote here at all in my opinion. I firmly belive that despite the poll’s Fianna Fáil will win a seat in Cork East. There have been suggestions that they wont, however I just can’t see that happen. Expect Michael Ahern to be ahead of Kevin O’Keeffe and to take the final seat.

Verdict: 2FG, 1FF, 1Lab