One then has to ask where the next bubble lies. The problem with over valued assets, is that one doesn’t realise they are over valued until it’s just too late. Many right now are talking about the possible bubble in Australia, others are discussing the possibility of China crashing and the unforeseen effects this would have on the world economy. While, I accept both of this are likely, I believe the next bubble is already in motion. I suggest that bubble to be social media. (Yes, an extension to dot-com)

2 Days ago LinkedIn floated an IPO on the New York Stock Exchange. The shares priced at $45 rose to $122.70 on the first day of trading. This means the market cap is somewhere around $9 billion! Can anyone find foundation to a value that high for a firm that does so little? The professional networking site has few streams of revenue and offers premium services to users in order to bring in revenue. Most user’s would choose not to avail of these services. The firm claims that 38% of revenue comes from this stream. Is that even a sound business model? In the first 9 months of 2010 profit was a measly $10 million. Does this sound like a firm worth 9 billion? Worryingly the firm openly predicts it will make a loss in 2011 as it did in 2009.

The honest truth is that LinkedIn is grossly over valued. There is no way, such a firm could command such a value. My advice of all is that begin shorting and wait for the value to fall! However, the recent behaviour of the market is highly unsettling. Recently Microsoft paid an astounding $8.5 for Skype. The previous owners were more than delighted to be offloading it as they found it had no use to them. Why? Because Skype doesn’t being in any revenue! The previous owner was none other than Ebay. Why anyone in Ebay thought that Skype could enhance the online shopping business is beyond me. But from going to market irrationality to plan stupidity is paying $8.5 billion for it. In fact, I’m quite sure Ebay are laughing all the way to the bank with the fact they have made a profit on this transaction. The price paid by Microsoft is 32 times Skype’s operating profits. Surely Bill Gates didn’t take his medication when he signed off on this purchase?

For one to suggest that social media stocks are being way over priced, I don’t believe is unreasonable. However the key lesson of pricing, is what goes up- always goes down. An even bigger problem is that a company can only be valued at what someone is willing to pay for it. When Microsoft figures out that Skype doesn’t actually fit very well into their empire, who’s going to write a check for $8.5 billion to take it off their hands?

I guess one should remember “fool theory”… Bubbles continue as long as the fools can find greater fools to pay up for the overvalued asset. The bubbles will end only when the greater fool becomes the greatest fool who pays the top price for the overvalued asset and can no longer find another buyer to pay for it at a higher price.

We have had a tulip’s bubble, railway bubble, uranium bubble etc so why not a Social Media bubble? The one key characteristic of bubbles is that they are the height of popularity at that point in time. However, the global economy would rather not experience a market crash right now. We are barely getting through the current one!

Some parents however have begun protesting and contacting their public reps. This presents an interesting, new challenge for the new Government. For Cork it could mean closure for up to 47 schools. The smallest of which is Rathduane, Mallow which has just eight pupils and two teachers. Clearly a school with a four pupil to teacher ratio is insane and without doubt the department is correct in pursuing the immediate closure of the school.

Parents are protesting that this proposal will kill off rural Ireland. However I don’t agree. The proposal doesn’t intend to shut all rural schools, simply amalgamate situations where 2 or 3 small schools are located in one area. The cost savings in terms of electricity, labour costs etc will be enormous. Furthermore, teaching standards can only improve where teachers instead of teaching 4 or 5 different classes now teach children who are all at a similar level.

However it sadly is felt that this new, innovative approach will struggle to be successful due to the mass uproar expected in rural communities. In Ireland, some things never change!

It is very likely that the events of the last few days may plunge Japan back into recession, having major knock on effects for Ireland and the wider global economy. It can’t really come at a much worse time for Ireland as our economy struggles to pull itself from depression. In 2009, Japanese exports were worth €6 billion to the Irish economy. (Recovering to 2007 levels). A dip in this figure in 2011 will continue to provide challenging conditions for an already under pressure Irish recovery.

Ireland’s recovery in itself is now under serious scrutiny as all economic indicators point towards 2011 being a year of negative growth. The most recent Central Bank bulletin predicts negative growth of 0.3% in GNP. (While expecting modest growth of 1.0% in GDP, showing that even the Multi- nationals are barely able to pull us out of recession) There is a serious worry that the real economy is not recovering fast enough. The latest unemployment figures will be key to seeing if Ireland has crucially halting the ongoing unemployment crisis. Most recent figures placed unemployment at a record high of 13.6% towards the end of 2010.

However, Central Bankers now have another key problem. Inflation is back after a short, sharp period of deflation. February 2011 saw a 2.2% annual inflation rate. The Euro-Zone as a whole is heading into choppy waters in terms of inflationary pressure. How long more can Jean Claude Trichet justify keeping the base interest rates at 1%? They have been held there since May 2009 in order to help states like Ireland emerge from their recessions. However with the German and French economies recovering faster and stronger than some weaker states, inflation must now become an issue once again. It appears that over the short-term is the ECB is willing to allow inflation to creep about the 2% target, however I believe this willingness will be relatively short-lived. This Spells further pain for Ireland. High inflation,high unemployment, an ongoing fiscal crisis and little/no monetary options will mean that Ireland is backed into a corner. It is now the duty of the new Government to find a solution, when many dread the only options remaining to us. Ireland must now consider the senior and especially subordinated bondholders it has protected for so long. The country must also review its internal commitments in terms of social welfare and health. More importantly however is that Ireland, must review its place within the single European currency. The ECB will be quick to act if it feels that Ireland is going down, for we will drag Portugal, Spain and more with us if we do! Enda Kenny & Finance Minister Michael Noonan must put our cards on the table- for otherwise our position in the Euro is surely untenable. As for the Japanese impact on all this- it can only do us harm.

Taoiseach: Enda Kenny

Tanaiste: Eamon Gilmore

Justice: Pat Rabbitte

Education: Ruairi Quinn

Transport: Simon Coveney

Finance: Michael Noonan

Enterprise: Richard Bruton

Public Sector Reform: Joan Burton. ( I don’t believe this is a good appointment, but I feel this is what will happen)

Communications: Leo Varadkar

Environment: Phil Hogan

Agriculture: Michael Ring

Health: James Reilly

Foreign Affairs: Brendan Howlin

Tourism: Brian Hayes

Ceann Comhairle: Sean Barrett

Social Protection: Roísin Shorthall

Chief  Whip: Fergus O’Dowd

Defence: Charles Flanagan (Maybe David Stanton, however might be Flanagan based on regional balance)

Attorney General: Alan Shatter

Super Junior: Labour. Probably Sean Sherlock?

Other Junior Ministers: Lucinda Creighton, Michael Creed, Pat Breen, Heather Humphreys, Peter Mathews (Banking reform), Jimmy Deenihan, Alex White.

Cork North Central

Fianna Fáil are in real trouble in CNC. Having won two seats in 2007, they now are facing a situation where they will be without a seat in the 31st Dáil. Polls last week were giving sole candidate Billy Kelleher just 13% of the vote. It’s my belief, that even though I do believe he is transfer toxic and will be scrapping it out, he will win the final seat. Kathleen Lynch will top the poll, despite her uselessness and will be followed by one of the Fine Gael candidates either Dara Murphy or Pat Burton. I personally believe Murphy is the better candidate and I’m assuming the voters of CNC will see this. The final seat will be taken by Sinn Féin’s Johnathan O’Brien. Labour’s John Gilroy is fancied by many due to the rise in Labour support in the constituency, however the failure of the party to manage the vote will mean in my opinion result in just one seat. For Fine Gael, I don’t believe they have the percentages to bring home two seats in North Central. While its possible, I think its unlikely.

Verdict: 1Lab, 1FF, 1FG, 1SF

Cork East

Cork East for most is a very exciting constituency mainly down to the fact that Fine Gael are running three candidates. The party currently has one TD in the form of David Stanton. I expect him to re-elected, more than likely on the first count. I do believe that there should be a second Fine Gael seat in the constituency, however I’m very unsure as to whether it will be Tom Barry or Pa O’Driscoll. Based on geographical issues I’m assuming it will be O’Driscoll. Labour’s Sean Sherlock is expected to attract a huge vote in Mallow. This will take from Barry’s vote and hence I believe that O’Driscoll will be ahead on the first count and that this should be enough. It should be noted that if Barry does lose out, there easily could be a lot of hurt people in the Barry clan, who were upset I’m sure when the Fine Gael party added O’Driscoll to the ticket. I’m expecting fireworks!

I don’t believe Labour will win a second seat, purely down to the gross error they have made in putting forward a candidate too old to connect to the electorate. They also have not managed their vote here at all in my opinion. I firmly belive that despite the poll’s Fianna Fáil will win a seat in Cork East. There have been suggestions that they wont, however I just can’t see that happen. Expect Michael Ahern to be ahead of Kevin O’Keeffe and to take the final seat.

Verdict: 2FG, 1FF, 1Lab

Cork South Central.

Nearly 100,000 voters are eligible to vote in this sprawling urban core to Cork City. However, I don’t expect this 5 seater constituency to throw up any major surprises. Most would agree that Simon Coveney (Fine Gael) will be elected on the first count, shortly followed by Micheal Martin (Fianna Fáil) and Ciaran Lynch (Labour). The betting on the final two seats is towards both going to Fine Gael. I firmly expect the party to get at least one and probably both, meaning that Fianna Fáil’s Michael McGrath is set to lose his seat. Jerry Buttimer and Deirdre Clune will take the final two seats, however the order may surprise many people.

Verdict: FG3, FF1, Lab1

Cork North West

Easily Ireland’s most conservative constituency, this three seater will provide little or no shocks at all. Fine Gael have run three candidates in an ambitious strategy to soak up as many votes as possible. Three seats will be more than likely beyond them, however this is the only place in the country where it might happen. (Contains the death place of Michael Collins after all!) I expect Michael Creed to easily win the first seat and to be followed very closely by Derry Canty of Ballincollig. In fact, don’t be surprised if Canty is very near to a quota. Many have underestimated the former PD, however he has stormed his home area of Ballincollig. For poor Aine Collins, it appears she didn’t have the back bone to get the final seat and so yet another woman fails to get elected. Nevertheless she will be relatively close to the final seat losing out to Fianna Fáil’s Michael Moynihan.

Verdict: FG2, FF1`

Cork South West

This rural constituency provides for real entertainment, every single election. Many would argue that not one single candidate on the list is good enough to be a real TD, however three people will be returned to the 21st Dáil tomorrow. I expect Jim Daly to firmly top the poll. If FG don’t manage his vote properly then it may mean that they may not actually win a second seat here; similar to what happened in 2007 with Fianna Fáil. Nevertheless I do expect the local Fine Gael machine to move enough votes this evening in order to elect a second candidate out of the remaining two. Logic would state it to be Kevin Murphy, the only candidate from the western end of the constituency. Therefore this would mean that Noel Harrington would miss out. However I expect it to be very close for the final seat with the party probably split in two over it! For Labour, Michael McCarthy has proven twice before to be truly awful at elections, perhaps one can pin it on the lack of a local organisation? Either way, in this election, like previously he has proven that he doesn’t really have the appetite to get elected. The national Labour swing will bring him very close however! Sitting TD Christy O’Sullivan has already been written off. Running mate Denis O’Donovan, however, is expected to win a seat ahead of Labour.

Verdict: FG2 FF 1 (Barely)

(SF transfers could play a massive role in deciding who is elected)

Madam,

The December edition of Motley contained an article on 3rd level fees. In that article the Fine Gael party policy was misquoted by the author. The piece suggested that Fine Gael is in favour of a student loan funding mechanism for 3rd level, while insinuating that the party was also in favour of 3rd level fees at point of entry. These claims are both inaccurate and misleading.

Fine Gael believes that 3rd level education should be free at the point of delivery to avoid any undue burden on students or families. This involves abolishing the registration fee which in our view is the re-introduction of third level fees by stealth. We need to ensure that barriers to participation are as low as possible even in the current economic context, in order to ensure that Ireland does create the much talked about “knowledge based economy”

Fine Gael does not believe that graduates should bear the full cost of their education at third level. We think that to ask graduates to do so ignores the societal and economic benefits of third level education. We are proposing a system of deferred contribution – where graduates, once they begin to receive the economic benefit of their education, make a contribution towards the cost that was incurred on their behalf. This will be collected through the PRSI system and will come to no more than 30% of the cost of the graduates degree. All funds raised will be ring- fenced and spent in the 3rd level sector to ensure increased quality of delivery over the coming years.

Other key proposals by our party include: reforming the maintenance grant system which is inadequate both in terms of the level of support it provides to students and in the way in which it is administered. We believe that the system should be reformed so that maintenance grants are adequate, equitable and transparent. Furthermore we believe that the system should be less bureaucratic and administered by a single body.

Education is a right, Fine Gael in Government will seek to maximise participation, by minimising financial barriers to entry to third level.

Our education policy is available at http://www.finegael.org/upload/file/3rdway.pdf

yours etc,

S.C

Love & other drugs has to be the single most hyped Christmas film this year. Bizarrely, the trailer shown on tv fails to resemble the film at all. In fact, I was shocked as to how different the film was from my expectations. For all of you who believe this is a regular romantic comedy, you’ll be presently shocked.

The first key point that must be noted is that for a 15 rated film, it contains a LOT of nudity and raw sexual activity. In fact, if one just watched a certain 20 minutes it easily could be classes as light pornography. This I feel is important to note, as this time tomorrow, hundreds of people will be heading to see this film not expecting this at all. For Anne Hathaway, whoever thought she was an innocent devout Christian before this film, will find that opinion destroyed. Male viewers will however take no issues to this, as the film shows off her very striking curves.

The film itself is actually not bad, despite the bizarre insistence on the director to include lots and lots of intercourse. The story revolves around Jamie Randall (Jake Gyllenhaal) who is portrayed as almost a sex addict. We learn that he has lost of his current job due to sex! He then meets Maggie Murdock (Anne Hathaway) who has been struck with Parkinson’s at the extraordinarily young age of 26. They initially strike a relationship based mainly on lust with Maggie unwilling to allow herself to become emotionally involved. However the story is far from predictable after this point, as one would expect. The director, instead of focusing the attention of the viewer on the nature of the illness that Maggie must live with, places our attention on her ability to block others from entry into her life. In fact, little time is spent in the film discussing the actual disease that is Parkinson’s, instead the director subtly highlights the difficulties that Maggie faces, the biggest of those difficulties is living and suffering alone while taking huge doses of medication.

The film takes a swipe at the Pharmaceutical firms and their failure to find a cure for Parkinson’s. It also highlights the cruel nature of the American health system that forces patients to go as far as Canada in order to be able to afford their basic medication. From the beginning we are told that Maggie doesn’t have health insurance, like so many millions of US citizens. Jamie ironically works for Pfizer as a drug rep trying to increase sales of Pfizer’s products by sweet talking doctor’s, buying flowers and sleeping with who ever necessary. He later becomes the key salesman for a new drug on the market, Viagra- which fits the crude tone of the film very appropriately.

The onscreen relationship between the two central characters continues to grow, however Maggie in particular will not allow Jamie to come into her life due to her condition. The film continues onwards with a struggle between the ultimate drug which compounds them both, love. What is uncertain is whether they will both allow themselves to be taken in by the very power of the drug that is love. However disappointingly, the film is not quite as deep, meaningful or ponder-some as it should be. It fails to properly communication the true emotion of the key characters and the difficulties their relationship faces. Instead we are greeted a feeling that the working title of the film was “Pfizer: Viagra & sex” I’m sure many sufferers of Parkinson’s will ultimately be hugely disappointed with this films’ failure to attack properly those that should be named and shamed, its failure to show more than anecdotal evidence of the day-to-day problems faced by sufferers and of course its lack of sheer credibility.

Expect lots of this...

The question as to whether the film is believable must be debated. The character Maggie is expected to be able to live on just working part-time in a coffee shop, despite the obvious high drug costs she faces? The director tries to over-ride this by placing her living in a very run-down home. Nevertheless,this still fails to assure the audience of its credibility. One must also question whether someone as sick as Maggie, would really have the stamina and energy for that amount of sexual activity?

I thought the film would show the later stages of Parkinson’s and the real effects of the disease. Instead it focuses on the short- term, throwing in a little drama into an otherwise fairly ordinary rom-com.

Ironically, I still believe this is probably one of the best films at the cinema right now. (However the total flop that has been Little Fockers, The Way Back & Tron- all of which should be missed, helps greatly) The film however tries to be both a tear- jerker and a comedy- which is where it ultimately falls apart.

Verdict 3.4/5

P.S, great to see Oliver Platt back working with Hank Azaria.

Wexford currently has 2 Fianna Fáil (John Browne & Sean Connick), 2 Fine Gael (Paul Kehoe & Michael Darcy) and 1 Labour (Brendan Howlin). I expect this to change in the upcoming election but maybe not as much as people would think. Fianna Fáil go into this election in damage limitation mode, in Wexford they hope to hold one of their two seats. In 2007 John Browne topped the poll, while Sean Connick only managed to get elected on the fifth count. This time around I expect Connick’s vote to hold up with Browne’s under severe pressure. Both candidates will suffer from the fact that neither has been a player at the cabinet table over the past number of years and the relatively low profile of both will only compound this. I expect Fianna Fáil to poll around 20% in this constituency and therefore meaning that I don’t believe they will lose both seats. Geographical issues will of course play a part in deciding which seat survives. Connick is located the New Ross electoral area in which Fianna Fáil polled over 39% in last years local elections, he will retain many of these votes and is not challenged by any other major candidate in this area. Browne meanwhile shares his electoral area with Fine Gael’s Paul Kehoe and Labours Pat Cody and hence finds himself majorly on the back foot. Fianna Fáil also only got around 25% in this constituency last year and therefore it leads me to believe that Election 2011 will signal the end to Browne’s nearly 30 year political career. Senator Lisa McDonald is also  said to be running (I’m awaiting confirmation) and could pose serious problems for the party. Headquarters must be highly worried at the idea of running three for just one seat, if it goes badly wrong it may end up with nothing!

Fine Gael is running three candidates and is looking to gain a seat here. I believe this is highly unlikely to happen for two reasons. Firstly I don’t as of yet believe the Fine Gael vote is high enough to actually win three seats. Secondly, the caliber of the third candidate is horrific. Senator Liam Twomey, former front-bencher in the 29th Dáil, will try to win a third Fine Gael seat, something the party hasn’t had since the November election of 1982. When one looks at the three Fine Gael TD’s back then, one then understands why- it was Ivan Yeates, Michael Darcy Snr and the highly formidable Avril Doyle. Three highly capable candidates who won three seats on merit earning 41.5% of the vote. This time around I expect Fine Gael to poll between 36-38%, however I don’t see them breaking the 40% barrier which they need to break in order to stand a chance at winning the third seat. Geographically, their three candidates are well placed. Michael Darcy, deputy spokesperson on communications, in particular should have little trouble getting reelected considering he is the only registered candidate in the Gorey electoral area to the north of the constituency. Paul Kehoe, Fine Gael’s chief whip,  is located in the center alongside a Fianna Fáil and Labour candidate, while Twomey will be up against long serving TD Brendan Howlin and a resurgent Sinn Fein in Anthony Kelly. I expect Twomey to be the Fine Gael candidate to lose out (again), this time I hope he isn’t hoping for a Seanad nomination; cos it might not come!

Labour are highly confident they can win two seats in Wexford in the upcoming election, if they do so it will be the first time since 1954 that they have done it. However the return of Sinn Fein will worry them greatly. Labour may find the final seat going to Anthony Kelly instead of Pat Cody as they hope. Considering Sinn Féin are polling in the mid teens in this constituency it is likely they may pick up a seat. It’s also highly credible that Kelly may out-poll Cody on first preferences. The key for Labour is to ensure that as many as possible of Brendan Howlin’s votes go to Cody and ensure that Howlin is not allowed to top the poll. However being the greedy culture that exists in Labour, I do expect Howlin to top the poll and hence giving Cody a huge chance of losing out. Sinn Fein’s Cody will also benefit from the number of left candidates from the ULA and PBP. I expect both of those candidates (John Dwyer & Seamus O’Brien) to be eliminated early with their votes helping Sinn Fein rise above Cody. Sinn Féin themselves have been dealt a blow after John Dwyer deflected to United Left, however assuming the Sinn Féin vote holds, Dwyer will not be ahead of Kelly. I expect Sinn Féin to poll around 14% with Labour between 24-28%

Considering how little talented Fianna Fáil TD’s will survive the upcoming election, one has to suggest that Sean Connick (Or Lisa McDonald) will probably be a front-bencher in the 31st Dáil- just alas on the opposition side of the Dáil! For Fine Gael their chief-whip Paul Kehoe and quota squatter Michael Darcy will be safe. One of the two Fine Gaelers will be expecting a Junior Ministry, University of London graduate Darcy should get it, however I expect it to be Paul Kehoe. Labour look as if they wont win the second seat on current polling form, however they should still come close. I will be very surprised if Howlin doesn’t get the first seat. I expect the last seat to go to either the ULA or Sinn Féin.

Verdict: FG 2, Lab 1, FF 1, SF 1

Fianna Fáil to lose a seat to Sinn Féin

Locals have reacted angrily to the news and have got local representatives involved in order to save the post office. Today Fine Gael TD Michael Creed wrote to An Post asking them to reconsider, pointing out that the Gaeltacht area needs it post-office “I would appeal to you to revisit this decision to downgrade services to Ballingeary. Ballingeary is unique in that it is a Gaeltacht village with different needs to that of non-Gaeltacht areas.” There is little doubt that a vibrant Gaeltacht is necessary in order to keep these regions alive.

The post office closure is now sure to be a key issue for voters in the Ballingeary area, one of Corks few mainland Gaeltacht area’s remaining.

http://michaelcreedfg.wordpress.com/2010/12/21/letter-to-an-post-ceo-regarding-closure-of-ballingeary-post-office/

http://www.southernstar.ie/article.php?id=2395