REDC: FG to dominate in CSC & CSW November 24, 2010
Posted by Scandalcentral in Current Affairs, Politics.Tags: Cork South Central, Cork South West, Evening Echo, FF, FG, LAB, Red C, SBP, SF
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The breakdown of last weekends RedC opinion poll has been made available. The figures released highlight strong % gains for Fine Gael and Labour, while Fianna Fáil face meltdown in Cork South Central.
In Cork South Central the results were as follows: (The recent Evening Echo poll is show along with the 2007 result)
Party- REDC- Evening Echo- 2007 General Election.
Fine Gael 38.5% 40% (28.42%)
Fianna Fail 14.6% 22% (44.28%)
Labour 27.7% 26% (9.25%)
Sinn Fein 9% 5% (5.11%)
The above results shows that Fine Gael is on course to poll near to 40% in Corks most urban constituency a very impressive feat and a substantial gain since 2007. The poll is broadly in line with the previous Evening Echo poll which signals that the party has a strong voter base. For Fianna Fáil, this poll makes very grim reading. At below 15%, it would suggest that they may struggle to get even 1 seat in South Central. If this was to happen, it would mean the 31st Dáil would be without both Micheal Martin and Michael McGrath. This is at present, looking more and more likely as the voters anger at the party increases as our economic fortunes worsen. It should be noted that the previous poll made nicer reading for Fianna Fáil, showing them retaining one seat, however considering the dramatic events of recent weeks the continued downturn in the polls for Fianna Fáil is very possible. Labour will also be impressed by their showing in this poll. It suggests that they will come out with a good chance of winning a second seat in South Central, however vote management could be a key issue which may not see this happen due to Ciaran Lynch’s popularity compared to Paula Desmond’s unknowness.
Verdict: FG 2, Lab 1, with the final 2 seats between FF, FG and Lab.
In Cork South West, the poll was as follows:
Party- REDC – 2007 General Election.
Fine Gael 41% (36%)
Fianna Fail 22% (42.57%)
Labour 24% (9.64%)
Greens 5% (6.73%)
Sinn Fein 8% (5.06%)
This poll once again shows Fine Gael are well ahead of the other party’s. It however doesn’t perhaps show as significant growth as one would expect in such a rural constituency. However it reinforces the Fine Gael hope that their two candidates will both become TD’s. (We will know who they are, ever so soon, stay tuned!) For Fianna Fáil, it must be surprising that the swing is this significant. If this poll was returned on polling day it would mean that 1 out of 2 who voted Fianna Fail 3 years ago have now abandoned them. If the swing is actually this large in CSW, it bodes poorly for the rest of the country and urban area’s where Fianna Fáil will be surely wiped out. For Labour, they now appear to have built up a sizeable share of the vote. However in order to win a seat they must tackle the geographical issues which have in the past halted their ability to win a seat. The increase in the Sinn Féin vote may not transfer to Labour in the way many would feel. Geographically this may benefit Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil more.
Verdict: FG1 Lab 1 FG v FF for final seat.
(Yes, imagine FF without a seat in CSW)
One should always remember that this poll was taken from a very small sample and has a relatively large margin of error!
Fine Gael in poll position in CSC October 17, 2010
Posted by Scandalcentral in Current Affairs, Local Politic's, Politics.Tags: Cork South Central
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A recent internal Fine Gael poll was released/ leaked last week to the media. After some reflection, I have gathered my thoughts on some very interesting figures.
The Poll result was as follows in terms of party support, with 2007 figures in brackets:
Fine Gael 40% (28.42%)
Fianna Fail 22% (44.28%)
Labour 26% (9.25%)
Greens 5% (8.37%)
Sinn Fein 5% (5.11%)
Others 2% (4.57%)
The poll showed the following in terms of individual support:
Simon Coveney FG 15% (9.93%)
Ciaran Lynch 14.5% LAB (9.25%)
Micheal Martin FF 14% (19.01%)
Deirdre Clune FG 12% (9.72%)
Paula Desmond 11.5% LAB (N/A)
Jerry Buttimer FG 8% (8.77%)
Michael McGrath FF 8% (16.7%)
Henry Cremin SF 5% (5.11%)
Dan Boyle GR 5% (8.37%)
Des Cahill FG 4% (N/A)
If the above scenario was accurate. It would see one Fianna Fail deputy returned (Martin), two Fine Gael returned (Clune and Coveney), one Labour (Lynch) with Fine Gael and Labour fighting it out for the last seat. (Buttimer and Desmond.
However a few points must be established before we lose the run of our selves in making predictions. Firstly this poll was only conducted among 500 people. That is less than 1% of the electorate in Cork South Central. (There are over 90,000 eligible to vote) The fact that Simon Coveney tops this poll so comfortably along with placing the relatively unknown Paula Desmond at 11.5% suggests to me that much of this poll was conducted in the Carrigaline and Rochestown area. Carrigaline being heartland for both candidates. The inclusion of Des Cahill and more important the fact he is at 4% suggests that a sizeable portion of those polled were from the South Eastern ward, which he shares with Deirdre Clune and Dan Boyle. In my view it would appear that the south of the constituency, ie the Togher area was not heavily polled and was not polled equally with the other geographical area’s. Hence in my view this has allowed Coveney to top the poll and has placed Jerry Buttimer on just 8%. In reality I believe Coveney will come in under a quote (Probably around 13%) with Buttimer on 11%. Des Cahill will not get a nomination and his 4% should filter into Deirdre Clune and Jerry Buttimer’s vote. In this (Somewhat more realistic) scenario, it would place Fine Gael in poll position to win 3 out of the 5 seats.
Another puzzling element to this poll is the resurgence of Micheal Martin. A number of weeks ago, it was being heavily predicted that he had little chance of retaining his seat. Yet this poll places him ahead of Michael McGrath. This does come as a shock to most in Cork South Central including Martin himself. However for Fianna Fáil, to be on 22% and at just half their vote of 2007 will scare party strategists. However, Fianna Fáil know that they will do worst in middle class urban area’s and Cork South Central is showing that Fianna Fáil must be prepared for bloodbath here. If this poll is taken at face value, it would mean that Fianna Fáil will do worse here than they are nationally (24% ish) It also suggests that much of Michael McGrath’s core vote in Carrigaline has abandoned him for Desmond and Coveney.
The poll suggests that Deirdre Clune is holding her own. (As expected) and may in fact do slightly better than expected. Depending on how Coveney’s vote is divided she may be the highest polling Fine Gael candidate on election day. Des Cahill and Laura McGonigle’s appearance on the local scene can only help shore up her vote. The poll also suggests that Ciaran Lynch is safe as expected.
The poll surprisingly placed Dan Boyle on 5%. A more realistic figure would be 2-3% I don’t think anyone expects the media mogul to be on 5% come polling day. Once again, I expect regional bias played its part here. Sinn Féin lie on the same 5% they had in 2007 and show no signs of gaining.
Cork South Central is a tough constituency and is always difficult to predict. It is geographically complex and this makes this constituency poll very difficult to interpret. However, if it was conducted and leaked by Fine Gael it means that they want to give an impression that Jerry Buttimer is up against and needs that vote. A great ploy which will help them towards the target of 3 seats. For Labour it’s unfortunate that they don’t have a quality second candidate, for Desmond will be found out to be nothing more than a stone standing for election as election day draws close.
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/ff-shaky-in-key-district-says-fg-poll-2371979.html
Desmond added to Labour’s CSC ticket. August 7, 2010
Posted by Scandalcentral in Politics.Tags: Ciaran Lynch, Cork South Central, Michael McGrath, Paula Desmond, Simon Coveney
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Desmond: Labour had no one else!
Councillor Paula Desmond has been confirmed as the second Labour Party candidate for Cork South Central joining sitting TD Ciaran Lynch. While Labour were expected to run two candidates in South Central, Desmond would not have been the first name on everyone’s lips, on anyones lips for that matter. I personally would have thought of Lorraine Kingston, both a poll topper and a fresh face (But too close to Lynch’s area) was more suited to the Dáil or even Michael Ahern or Denis O’Flynn. It’s clear however that Labour want to maximise their regional votes so placing a Carrigaline candidate on the ticket is a great idea. Pity they only had the Desmond dynasty to choose from. We here at scandalcentral loathe political dynasties. They are rotten to the core and do no good to Irish politics. It’s a sad state of affairs when Labour are reduced to placing Desmond on the ticket because they have no other options. Paula’s mother was a politician and before that her father. Her father, Dan was elected to the Dáil 5 times between 1948 and 1961. He passed away in late 1964. In the subsequent bye-election, Eileen won it keeping the family name in politics. She stayed in politics for quite a while getting elected for a few occasions to both the Dáil and even to Europe in 1979. (She was even a Minister later on) After failing to get elected in the 1989 European elections, she left politics. Meanwhile Paula appeared on the scene, ensuring the citizens of Cork couldn’t forget that Desmond name. She has been elected to the Council every time between 1985 and 2009. Her only failure came in 1999 European elections where she came 7th on first preferences. Therefore with such political history how could the Labour party ignore this candidate? They could try be judging a person on their merits and not by their relatives. That goes for all parties and not just Labour.
Desmond is regarded as being useful to Labour in CSC because of her location. It’s felt (Or assumed) that she may take votes off fellow Carrigaline TD’s Michael McGrath (Fianna Fail) and Simon Coveney (Fine Gael, frontbencher) However, I see her chances of doing this as poor. Even McGrath, up against an anti- Fianna Fail hurricane will poll very well and has a very good personal vote. Simon Coveney is sure to be a part of the next Cabinet and will be Minister for something, locals love Ministers and will be unlikely to forget this. She is therefore going to struggle to get votes from the word go. I expect her to poll poorest of all the candidates from the mainstream parties. Expect to she her eliminated early on, pushing Lynch over the line to ensure one seat for Labour.
This leaves my predictions for Cork South Central unchanged:
2FG, 1FF, 1LAB, 1 Other (Either Coveney, McGrath or Boyle)
Boyle announces date of Donegal Bye-Election? July 4, 2010
Posted by Scandalcentral in Current Affairs, Politics.Tags: Bye- Election, Cork South Central, Dan Boyle, Donegal South West
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In yet another shocking move today, Green Senator Dan Boyle today appeared to announce the date of the Donegal South West Bye- election. Speaking on radio he declared that as it was over a year it would probably be held at the same time as the children’s rights referendum in the Autumn. There has so far been no comment on the issue from the Government. I expect little comment, as they appear opposed to holding anything! This once again to be yet another startling gaff from Boyle who normally announces personal policy like this over his Twitter page. I did go and check his Twitter page and no it doesn’t carry any information either to this announcement. He went on to say that the Waterford and Dublin South bye- elections wont be held because they aren’t over one year. Since when is there a law requiring them to be over a year anyway? It’s still unclear if any of his Government colleagues are even aware of this apparent election schedule. However the point he raises about it being over one year should be taken at face value. Perhaps law should be changed to ensure they are held within a certain (reasonable) period of time?
I personally find it humorous that it’s Boyle announcing this when less than 2 months ago he declared that bye- elections “undermine the Government mandate“. Another remarkable turnaround for the Cork South Central based Senator. Tomorrow will tell if this is merely Boyle’s personal opinion or an actual commitment from the Government to hold one of the three outstanding bye- elections. Until I hear it from Brian Cowen’s lips, I won’t believe it! Nevertheless they surely have to be held at some stage. Don’t they?
Clune to replace Coveney in CSC? June 29, 2010
Posted by Scandalcentral in Current Affairs, FG, Politics.Tags: Cork South Central, CSC, Deirdre Clune, Simon Coveney
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I have received information from a fairly reliable source today that Deirdre Clune has a huge chance of being promoted to the Fine Gael front bench this Thursday. If this is correct, she would replace Simon “bland” Coveney as being the representative from Cork South Central. It obviously is still unclear if this will actually happen, for we will only know when Enda Kenny reveals his team, however this would prove to be a dramatic change in direction. It may also be viewed as punishment for Coveney for failing to stick by his leader. Either way, exciting times are ahead.
It would equally be due reward for Deirdre Clune who has worked immensely in Cork South Central over the past number of years. However many would have reservations over her ability to lead a portfolio on the front bench. However, one should not under estimate a woman who has politics running through her veins. Either way, Thursday will reveal whether its Clune or Coveney.
