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Beverly Flynn to retire! December 16, 2010

Posted by Scandalcentral in Current Affairs, General Election 2011, Politics.
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Beverly Flynn has announced she will not contest the next General Election. The Mayo TD won her seat back as an independent at the last General Election in 2007 after losing it in 2002. She was first elected in 1997. She is understood to be stepping down for personal reasons.

Deputy Flynn’s seat was under pressure in the upcoming election due to the continued rise of Fine Gael in Mayo. The departure of Mrs Flynn, now means that promising Fianna Fáil TD Dara Calleary will be likely to hold his seat. It also means that Fine Gael are now likely to win a forth seat in Mayo, as they have suggested possible in the past. They currently have three in party leader Enda Kenny, front bencher Michael Ring and since 2007 G.A.A man John O’Mahony. Michelle Mulherin who survived until the 7th count in 2007 will be expected to fight for the forth Fine Gael seat. While four seats out of five may seem highly unlikely for any party in any constituency, this feat is highly possible in Mayo, down to the fact that both party leader Enda Kenny along with shadow minister for Social Protection are both expected to get elected on the first count with a significant surplus to help get the other two candidates elected.

Labour in Mayo will try to win a seat with former indepedent Jerry Crowley. However its unclear as to whether he will be punished for jumping onto the Gilmore wagon.

Mayo Verdict: FG3 FF1 Lab V FG 1

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1216/politics1.html

Kenny Announces New Shadow-Shadow Cabinet October 4, 2010

Posted by Scandalcentral in Current Affairs, FG, Politics.
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Enda Kenny has announced his new list of deputy spokespersons. It contains a promotion for Lucinda Creighton to Immigration, Integration and Equality. It has placed Brian Hayes and Damien English as the new deputy finance team to assist Michael Noonan. Notable absentees include Waterford TD John Deasy and Cork South West deputy Jim O’Keeffe. Also absent, as expected, is Paddy Sheehan who was sacked recently over his alcohol incident. Kieran O’Donnell has been moved aside to Enterprise and Employment to join up once again with Richard Bruton. Michael Creed has been given the odd portfolio of European Affairs. (Does the man know what Europe is?) Meanwhile Dan Neville retains the portfolio of Mental Health. In a disappointing move John O’Mahony is given the role of “Sport”. This now means that of the three deputies in Mayo, all three have either a junior or senior shadow ministry. This compares to the many constituencies such as Cork South West which now lie totally without any form of portfolio representation. The Government may have forgotten about CSW a long time ago, but surely Enda Kenny hasn’t already? (Before the election even!) Noel Coonan gets CAP reform, which surely should have gone to Michael Creed?

The position of Irish Diaspora is truly bizarre. I really don’t even know what to say. Why Enda Kenny see’s this as required is beyond me. If he thinks this will halt a revolt, I’m not quite sure it will work.

Naturally the list is pretty irrelevant and will matter little in the coming months. Thank God, most on the list wont be ever getting a Junior Ministry position.

The list is as follows….

Special Responsibilities  		 Name

Food & Fisheries			Shane McEntee TD
CAP Reform				Noel Coonan TD
Forestry				Tom Sheahan TD
Telecommunications		 	Michael D’Arcy TD
Competition and Consumer 	 	Olivia Mitchell TD
Protection
Gaeltacht			 	Dinny McGinley TD
Lifelong Learning 			Ulick Burke TD
& School Transport
Enterprise & Employment			Kieran O’Donnell TD
Local & Community Development	 	James Bannon TD
Housing				 	Terence Flanagan TD
Public Expenditure			Brian Hayes TD
Banking & Credit			Damien English TD
European Affairs			Michael Creed TD
Human Rights/ODA			Pat Breen TD
Irish Diaspora				Paul Connaughton TD
Primary Care & Disability		Denis Naughten TD
Mental Health				Dan Neville TD
Immigration, Integration 		Lucinda Creighton TD
& Equality
Pension & Welfare Reform		Billy Timmins TD
Road Safety				Tom Hayes TD
Sport					John O’Mahony TD
Assistant Whip (and Juvenile 	 	Joe Carey TD
Justice)
North-South Cooperation			Joe McHugh TD
Source

Donegal South- West, Nightmare Stuff. September 13, 2010

Posted by Scandalcentral in Current Affairs, FG, Politics.
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Barry O'Neill: Topped Local Elections

The last few days have seen all party’s in the Donegal South-West By-election race up their game. Fine Gael have begun to take the battle very serious indeed with party leader Enda Kenny visiting the constituency and doing a canvass with candidate Barry O’Neill along with sitting TD Dinny McGinley over the past number of days. Kenny also announced that in October, his party would hold a cross- border tourism conference to highlight the North- Western region as a tourist destination. Fine Gael even held a National Executive meeting in the constituency last Saturday! Fine Gael have even got fellow Donegal TD Joe McHugh to write a letter to Martin McGuinness (Northern Ireland, Deputy First Minister) to promote the border region in Washington next month. Kenny is clearly pulling out all the stops to try to shore up support for first time candidate O’Neill, who is attempting to win a seat in Fianna Fáil heartland. While the party is clearly trying every trick in Frank Flannery’s book to win this seat, the “leaked internal poll”  has turned into nothing short of a fiasco. The poll has since been rubbished by Enda Kenny, who claims it the poll doesn’t exist at all! Whether or not it exists, the results are floating around. Is this another one of  Frank Flannery’s magic tricks? If one examines the results, it certainly stinks of Flannery. More or less everything “leaked” by Flannery turns out to have been leaked for a reason. This poll alleges that Fine Gael candidate O’Neill is polling fourth behind even Frank McBearty the Labour Party candidate. If this is in fact an internal Fine Gael poll, the only logic for releasing the figures was to create the idea that O’Neill was in trouble and required all the votes possible, just to give him a fighting chance along with forcing the local organisation to up their game. It may also have been a transfers ploy, as Fine Gael will be short of transfers in the constituency anyway. Whether this would be a successful ploy is unclear. However, there are many sources now informing me that this poll may in fact have been totally fabricated. However the bones of the poll (Even if someone’s guesswork) do appear fairly accurate. It comes as no one’s surprise that Fianna Fáil are leading the poll and that Sinn Féin and Labour are soaking up the protest vote. The idea that Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin are almost neck and neck has to be disturbing for all involved. While Pearse Doherty stands a great chance at the next General Election, the idea of him winning a By-Election shakes me to the core. Perhaps the people of Donegal really do want a new economic outlook- total desolation! For that’s what Sinn Féin’s economic policy is offering! Nevertheless, national politics matter little to the Donegal electorate, who lets not forget have elected Mary “Calamity” Coughlan no less than 6 times! (And will have her, no doubt topping the poll at the next General Election)

Whether one believes this poll or not, I do believe that Fianna Fáil will top this By-Election, but not necessarily win it. When one remembers that 51% of votes in 2007 went to Fianna Fáil, even a swing of 40-50% of their vote would still leave them in pretty good shape. Fine Gael have been stuck on 23-25% in Donegal South-West for the last decade and a half. If O’Neill was to poll around this figure in the By-Election it would be a great day for the blue-shirts. For Sinn Féin, who knows! Pearse Doherty had 21% of the vote in 2007, hence logically it is possible that he will increase this in a By-Election, especially considering that there will be some former Fianna Fáil votes on offer that wont be going to the blue-shirts. Therefore, the king- maker in this election must be McBrearty the Labour candidate, who will probably poll the highest any Labour candidate ever has in the constituency. I personally can’t see how he will get anything higher than 18%, more than likely in the 12-16% area. It will be his transfers that will decide more than likely who the winner of this seat will be. Logic would state that Sinn Féin should do well on transfers and may therefore steal the seat. Clearly Frank Flannery is aware of this and is trying his best to soak up transfers to give O’Neill a fighting chance?  One must also note that quite a few independents are standing and they also will have an impact of where the seat will go. Right now this By-Election is just too close to call, however one thing is for certain is that it will be exciting! All we need now is a date to hold the bloody thing!

Another side story appearing this week in Donegal South-West is the revelation that sitting Fine Gael TD Dinny McGinley will in fact be contesting the next General Election. Most had naturally assumed that the 65-year-old would be stepping down after the current Dáil. (He wanted to step down after the last!) However, it now appears that the political dinosaur has decided to run again. Enda Kenny, gave little away except reminding the media that a convention will decide the General Election candidates. Fine Gael have little or no chance of winning two General Election seats, so one must question the legitimacy of running two candidates, especially where the younger (Arguably brighter) candidate would lose out. Kenny did appear to suggest however that possibly only one candidate might be chosen, while that in my view is unlikely it isn’t overly reassuring for the voter of Donegal South-West. (Yet that is the same voter that will allow Mary “Calamity” Coughlan to top the poll, so perhaps they deserve everything they get) Either way the By-Election must come first, hopefully before the end of the year, but more than likely early 2011.

Lucinda the liability. July 20, 2010

Posted by Scandalcentral in Current Affairs, FG, Politics.
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Lucinda Creighton today confirmed what many of us already knew- that she is bitter at being over looked in the recent front bench reshuffle and is out for revenge. The Dublin South East TD is known to be a loudmouth amongst party colleagues but today she really did it. She proclaimed that Fine Gael was at risk of being a Fianna Fail lite. Exactly what Labour wants to hear! A woman who is so intelligent really lacks a lot of common sense. Even if she has issues with how Fine Gael is funded, this issue should be brought up with the party not with the media. Perhaps it’s because no one in the party listens to her whining anymore that she is making this public declaration? Her media stunt today has only further damaged her political prospects and will ensure Enda Kenny keeps her as far from the cabinet as possible after the next general election.

The issue that Lucinda has with the party is that developer Michael O’Flynn was present at last weeks fundraiser at the K Club. One developer appears to be the count? This is how small a scale Lucinda’s problems is. It also seems to be lost on her, that some property developers may actually support her own party or that they, like many other members may wish to contribute financially to the party. Her argument is that it’s ok for a shopkeeper to write the cheque for 1,500 euro, but not a shopkeeper who has/is building a house for resale. Is it right that all developers are now tarred with the Fianna Fail/ corrupt image?

Lucinda Creighton today continued the ongoing damage which is destroying the party’s election prospects following Brian Hayes personal interview with the Mail last week and after John Deasy declared the party was in crisis at the Young Fine Gael Summer School in Waterford. Personally I can’t understand why Enda Kenny is sitting back and allowing the likes of Creighton, Deasy and Hayes (Brian) to slander the public image of the party. Action needs to be taken…and fast. For Fine Gael must decide how big a liability Lucinda Creighton actually is and whether she is actually needed.

Hard- hitting article which appeared earlier this year in the Star newspaper.

http://www.davidcochrane.ie/images/STARLucinda1.jpg

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0720/finegael.html

Musical chairs, old left sitting! July 1, 2010

Posted by Scandalcentral in FG, Politics.
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I’m sure all of you are aware of the Fine Gael front bench at this stage, if not here they are:

  • Enda Kenny – Leader
  • Sean Barrett – Foreign Affairs
  • Richard Bruton – Enterprise, Jobs & Economic Planning (including public service reform)
  • Catherine Byrne – Older Citizens
  • Simon Coveney – Transport
  • Deirdre Clune – Innovation & Research
  • Jimmy Deenihan – Tourism, Culture & Sport
  • Andrew Doyle – Agriculture, Fisheries & Food
  • Frank Feighan – Community, Equality & Gaeltacht Affairs
  • Charlie Flanagan – Children
  • Phil Hogan – Environment, Heritage & Local Government
  • Paul Kehoe – Chief Whip (with responsibility for political reform)
  • Michael Noonan – Finance
  • Fergus O’Dowd – Education & Skills
  • John Perry – Small Business
  • James Reilly – Deputy Leader & Health & Children, (with responsibility for policy coordination & implementation)
  • Michael Ring – Social Protection
  • Alan Shatter – Justice & Law Reform
  • David Stanton – Defence
  • Leo Varadkar – Communications & Natural Resources

So what’s the reaction? Well I can’t see anyone jumping with excitement! Nevertheless, many of my predictions were accurate. For the record I had 13 of the faces right! (Out of 19 positions) However my shadow cabinet contained  several people who seem to have been totally ignored: Lucinda Creighton, Terrence Flanagan, John Deasy, Brian Hayes.. Naturally I accept that Flanagan is more suited to Deputy Finance spokesperson, but as O’Donnell hasn’t got anything it looks like his talent is being left idle once again. That is a very bad move by Kenny. He is forcing his youth to either do a Lucinda Creighton on it or disappear into the political wilderness. Lucinda herself is once again overlooked. Many might suggest this is because Kenny feels she would then be the instigator of a second push in the Autumn when Fine Gael collapses in the polls. As true as that may be, she is more talented then Catherine Byrne or Deirdre Clune. But no one said that talent had anything to do with politics!  John Deasy was once again overlooked. Kenny has now overlooked him for over a decade. Yes, I completely agree that he couldn’t have been on the front bench up to this point but now I feel that Kenny is playing a risky game. There is nothing more dangerous than an angry backbencher and Deasy has right to be exactly that. However the most high profiler dropped from cabinet was Brian Hayes. It’s very unclear exactly what he did during the heave but it must have been bad! Kenny has replaced him with Fergus “snooze” O’Dowd. When keeping in mind this is the education post we are talking about, that is truly a shocking call. Revenge is a dish best served cold I hear… but when one remembers that O’Dowd was the first to publicity defy Kenny, it’s a very odd call.

One move I find very odd is the fact that he has more or less ended the political career of Olwyn Enright. Her constituency has been redrawn and she is expected to lose her seat to Labour. Hence I was quite sure that she would be spared and Charles “boredom” Flanagan would be consigned to the back benches. Kenny has gone the opposite way around, saving Flanagan for a very unclear reason. Either way Enright now has a lot of time to try to save her seat, if she even realises she is in trouble! One interesting point which should be highlighted is how Richard Bruton’s role is ever so similar to his previous one. His title is “Enterprise, Jobs & Economic Planning (including public service reform)”… the only change is that jobs is now a more centered focus and the banking system a little less. However for Kenny to include one of Bruton’s personal goals of public sector reform is an astute move, some could even say clever. Equally the appointment of Michael Noonan to Finance itself was expected and he signaled that he will continue the way Bruton left off.

Personally I find the idea of Michael Ring in social protection as slightly confusing. Initially I was shocked. One of my colleagues asked me if I needed a lie down! I simply struggled to get my head around it. However slowly I began to understand. It was one of those moments where the clouds lifted and I could see again. I have come to the conclusion that it actually may be a pretty good move by Kenny. My reason for suggesting this is simple. In my predictions blog, I mentioned how social protection will be massive in the coming months and that the biggest opposition party needed a heavy hitter, someone who will tackle and attack the Government with little care for the consequences. The role required an individual who has an opinion and is not afraid to make it heard. To quote it: “…However what this role requires is someone to put the Government on the rack and challenge Labour’s soundbite’s…” For this reason I suggested Lucinda Creighton. However in many respects Michael Ring is a very similar choice except that he is seasoned by about 30 years! He has the ability to shout and condemn and may do a great job. Nevertheless only time will tell as to whether he can provide substance to his commentary and score some points for Fine Gael outside of Mayo.

One interesting point which the media has ignored is that fact that certain portfolios have been dropped from the front bench including Immigration. The portfolio was held by Denis Naughton, (who has now been left to the hounds in the back benches) but is no longer regarded as important enough for the front bench. From glancing at the Fine Gael website it’s unclear if it has been scrapped totally or if it is now a back bench position. Equally, Innovation has now been promoted to the front bench and with it Cork’s Deirdre Clune. I reported earlier this week that she was in line for promotion. She is now officially the best dressed lady on the Fine Gael front bench clearly ahead of newly promoted Catherine Byrne who must have been totally shocked to her promotion as she was dressed almost as bad as Calamity Coughlan. However she must be more than a pretty face over the next 2 years if Fine Gael is to taken seriously as an economic powerhouse.

Overall this is a mixed front bench. The next election is just 96 weeks away. This bench is not the mix of youth and experience that Kenny claims it is. Far from it. The absence of  Terrence Flanagan, Brian Hayes, John Deasy, Olwyn Enright, Damian English, Joe Carey and Lucinda Creighton is regrettable. One would have expected more of the above to be sitting on the front bench and less of the Deenihan’s, Barrett’s and Feighan’s. This is an old-looking front bench which has a massive job to do. Hopefully they realise the job that must be done and how to do it. It’s very clear that up to recently the senior party has had no idea as to the fact that in many constituencies gains are unlikely unless they actually get off their asses and onto the streets. Is the message sinking through? Let’s ask that question in a few months. Personally, I believe the party is in free fall. Hopefully backroom team members like Frank Flannery will start to put pressure on people like Paddy Sheehan and find out his intentions for the 31st Dáil. Otherwise seats are being lost quickly in Cork South West and elsewhere. A new front bench is a start, substance must now follow. Nevertheless the return of the Varadkar’s and Bruton’s will do no harm and should help keep Kenny his job. But seriously what was with the red tie’s today?

Ready to lead?

FG Front bench announcement tomorrow. June 30, 2010

Posted by Scandalcentral in FG, Politics.
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Enda Kenny will unveil the new Fine Gael Front Bench tomorrow at 14.30 hours. Many late rumours are being flung around including Deirdre Clune and Joe Carey. Scandalcentral has given our predictions already, available here. Let’s see how many are correct and if Lucinda actually makes the breakthrough.

Fine Gael’s Reshuffle Predictions… June 22, 2010

Posted by Scandalcentral in Current Affairs, FG, Politics.
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Enda Kenny will reveal his new Front Bench next week. In this blog I give my predictions and where applicable the reasons for why I feel they will get that role. I should also add that this is a great time to reshuffle, two years before the next General Election means that the party should now rectify any bad decisions that was made in 2007.(They are quite a few who have not impressed) It’s also great timing as the Summer will give TD’s time to fully comfort themselves in their new portfolio. It will also give Enda time to get these media and communication lessons he needs.

The key positions…

Finance: The big question on everyone’s mind. My way of thinking is quite straight forward. This is without doubt, the biggest and most important portfolio and is where the next election would be won or lost.

  • Richard Bruton: (Current) is the outgoing spokesperson and has an impeccable record. His budget day performances over the best number of years has been magical, accurate, confident and composed. Nevertheless he is not expected to retain the portfolio due to the events of the past week. Personally, I would return him to Finance but without the deputy leader title, however this is highly unlikely.
  • Michael Noonan: (Favourite) Former leader of Fine Gael (2001-2002) Previous to that he was Finance spokesperson between 1997-2002. He was first elected in  1981 to the 22nd Dáil he was reelected every time since then and has served the people of Limerick for 29 years. Many in the media have placed him as favourite to return to this key Front Bench position. It should be equally noted that many in the media also placed Richard Bruton as favourite to topple Enda Kenny last week. There are some serious reservations here to Noonan taking the hot seat. Firstly, his wife’s health issues can’t be ignored. Yes he was in the past able to both lead the party and cope with this issue, however it is understood that her condition has worsened greatly. Clearly he will have to make a call, but I’m not fully confident he will once again choose politics over personal life. Ivan Yates made that point when he left politics, that he wanted a personal life and to enjoy it. Noonan may make the exact same choice over the coming days. There also is the age issue, Noonan is now 67 and will be 69 by the next General Election. Standing next to Enda Kenny who will be 61, will not wow the swing voters who are mainly under 35. Age may bring experience, but it may not win elections. I would also question whether he is truly a team player, he has failed to being home a 2nd seat on most occasions until 2007. This may be due to the lack of a Fine Gael vote, but in a 5 seater is a worry. One advantage he has is that he has served in most front bench positions and is very well-respected. Conversely, he has no economic qualifications, however that didn’t seem to be an issue when he won praise during his last stint in the position.
  • Dr Leo Varadkar: (Outsider) Leo may be a medical doctor but don’t rule him out. Over the past number of years he has held the enterprise portfolio and has shown himself to have a firm grasp of economics and an awareness for what has to be done. At the last election he ousted socialist Joe Higgins from the Dáil and out-polled long-standing TD Joan “Battle-axe” Burton. He has continually attacked the Government on their jobs failure and has been highly critical of the Governments jobs policy (Or the lack of one) While this would be a serious step up, he has shown that he could handle it. He is popular in Dublin, which is a critical point. One issue stopping him, could be the fact he is regarded as being very right-wing, something Enda likes to hide. Leo is definitely controversial and divisive but he is also decisive and a great communicator.

Verdict: Noonan ~(But not by much)

Health:Not much discussion needed here.

  • Dr James Reilly: former president of the Irish Medical Organisation, he joined politics to change the health service after years of working under the failed system. He has developed “Faircare“, the Fine Gael solution which has received universal praise as a solution. He has shown to not only be an excellent speaker and expert in his field but stood by Enda Kenny during the recent leadership battle. He has 25 years experience in the health service and is widely respected. Health is still an issue and wont go away.

Verdict: Dr James Reilly. Dr Leo wont be considered this time around, expect Reilly to retain Health and gain the Deputy leader role.

Justice: this isn’t high on the voters shopping list at the next election, nevertheless the rise in crime should be made an issue.

  • Charles Flanagan (current): has developed some excellent policies and solutions to Ireland’s crime issues over the last few years, however one could suggest he may an a communication problem particularly considering Fine Gael has always been the party which has traditionally taken a hard-line on crime.  It is suggested that one of the Laois/Offaly Front Bencher’s will lose their positions, the Fact the Olwyn Enright’s seat appears to be in serious trouble it spells demotion for Flanagan. The fact that he dithered and eventually voted against Enda Kenny has not helped.
  • Alan Shatter(Favourite): is without a shadow of a doubt a true expert in his field. As a Fine Gael TD he has published more legislation in the form of Private Members Bills from the opposition side of the Dáil than any other deputy elected to Dáil Éireann in the history of the State. He has pushed for the Children’s rights referendum in the Dáil and has been highly critical of Government inaction. His legal experience is simply overwhelming and in many respects is more suited to the role than Charlie ever was. One slight drawback is the fact that he wouldn’t be in the Children portfolio when the referendum takes place, but I’m sure with the Justice portfolio he will still be an ever-present feature.
  • Olywn Enright (Outsider): Unlikely to be considered for this role due to her recent media blackout.
  • Lucinda Creighton (Massive outsider): Not this time.

Verdict: Shatter hands down. After having sided with Kenny, no way he can’t be promoted.

Enterprise: another important portfolio that will be crucial to the next election.

  • Dr Leo Varadkar (Current): has done an excellent job developing strategies to solve the ever present job’s crisis. Has shown himself to be a good public speaker and excellent politician. Won’t have done himself huge harm during the Bruton push, due to the fact that he stayed to the back and acted like a passenger rather then leader. (Even if reality may be very different)
  • Richard Bruton: He will have to be on the front bench and while be can’t get Finance back, he needs to be placed in an economic role. Has experience as a Government Minister.

Verdict: Bruton. He has to be demoted, but is still a great politician so should get it. Only possible stumbling block is his unwillingness to serve, I’m assuming he will serve if asked.

Arts, sports and Tourism: has become quite important due to the collapse in tourists(and with it revenue) and the industry lying on its knee’s.

  • Olivia Mitchell (Current): a great politician, however is getting old. (Will be 64 by next Government). She sided with her friend Bruton and looks odd’s on to pay. (Someone has too!) the fact that constituency partner Shatter is to be promoted may also be a factor, as there are constituencies which need a potential Minister.
  • Dr Leo Varadkar: Many might be surprised at this one. However, he has shown to be a key Dublin based member of the Front Bench and his grasp of economics and potentially how many jobs can be created by tourism may place him here.
  • Damien English: …is a possibility.
  • Lucinda Creighton: could very well end up somewhere, probably not here.

Verdict: Dr. Leo Varadkar

Immigration: is becoming a massive portfolio and will very important in the next election. Many are upset as to how many immigrants are taking so much social welfare out of the state and as to how they have taken a lot of jobs while so many Irish lie unemployed.

  • Denis Naughton (Currently): Hasn’t impressed and led the charge against Kenny. Watch him disappear swiftly.
  • Dr. Leo Varadkar: Yes, I know he is appearing everywhere! His background and recent interviews offers potential to be put here. Not convinced Enda will chance it though.
  • John Deasy: Many may laugh at this. I feel its Deasy’s time. He may in the past have played his political cards wrong. (At times very wrong) and wouldn’t have been in the right camp last week. Nevertheless he is highly qualified and is based in a constituency which is used to a Minister. Currently has foreign affairs in the back benches so I expect him not to appear here, that alont with the fact the he might be far too contraversial
  • David Stanton: it’s an odd portfolio in terms of how one can be qualified for it. Might happen.
  • Damian English: again could feature..

Verdict: Very unclear, but I’m giving it to Stanton just based on loyalty.

The other positions…

Social Protection: Currently Olwyn Enright has this portfolio. While she has been weak in the current Dáil, she was impressive up to 2007. There is no doubt that for gender balance some females must be retained. I make it a straight fight off between her, Deirdre Clune and Catherine Byrne. Byrne has the massive advantage of being based in Dublin. If Kenny is considering his cards properly, he will consider Dublin. Byrne did herself no harm with her performance at the Parliamentary Party meeting. (She burst into tears when Kenny singled out the 9 Front Bencher’s) Clune is unlikely to get it, due to her lack of debating capacity and her location (The same constituency as Simon Coveney) However what this role requires is someone to put the Government on the rack and challenge Labour’s soundbite’s, therefore Lucinda Creighton stands a great chance of getting it. This will be a fairly important role over the next two years as the budget cuts continue, so if Olwyn is willing to get her act together and start really digging into the Government, she equally may get it. At the same time watch out for the challenge of Byrne. Verdict: Lucinda Creighton (After a lot of debating)

Foreign Affairs: John Deasy. Will have to reappear at some stage. Billy Timmins to run home without any Ministerial prospects.

Education: Brian Hayes: May have hurt himself in the Bruton challenge, but is still a massive player.

Rural affairs: Michael Ring. Staunch defence of Kenny could be rewarded with a different portfolio, but he is best in this role.

Agriculture: Wide open. Really could be anyone. Andrew Doyle and Joe McHugh may be considered, but I would think that Enda will stick with the old gaurd. That being Jimmy Deenihan. I expect Michael Creed to be punished for his foolish actions

Transport: Fergus O’Dowd has not impressed. He has shown little vision. Noel Coonan, who runs a very tight ship in Tipperary may get a shout. But more then likely it will go to Phil Hogan. (Who has to go somewhere :(  )  Ironically most would put him in Enterprise, I truly hope that wont happen.

Foreign Affairs: Fergus O’Dowd may be given a lifeline here. But I see little reason why he should be saved. Charlie Flanagan may also be saved here. However I don’t believe either will be retained. It is suggested Paul Kehoe will be promoted to something. Pat Breen may also be considered. I would end up saying Kehoe.

Defence: If Deenihan is to be promoted defence is then made available. They are many back benchers who should be promoted and this is a great place to see if they are able for front bench life. Charlie Flanagan again could be saved here, but I doubt it. Joe Carey may be considered but expect a Enda follower to get this one. John Deasy would be in with a shout. I’ll suggest John Perry as he deserves some time in the spotlight.

Children: after the referendum becomes a tiny portfolio. Expect Olwyn Enright to get this.(Or Byrne if he goes the other way around)

Chief Whip: Michael Ring could do a good job here. Would probably be Kieran O’Donnell, Michael Darcy or Joe McHugh. I’m suggested O’Donnell but it could go any way.

Environment: I’m going to be bold and suggest Lucinda Creighton. Many are suggesting she will be promoted. Many don’t know where the hell to put her. My thinking is Enda will throw her up against the Minister who is in her constituency. She could even be successful. However I have already placed her in Social Protection so my thinking is this needs to be someone strong and well able to attack the Green Party on it’s failings. Phil Hogan has been disastrous in the role up to now and I don’t expect him to be here after next week. If he does place Lucinda in the social role it would leave me to suggest Terrence Flanagan is the man for the job. (I originally wanted him as deputy Finance spokesperson) However he has served well in the deputy environment role and deserves to be promoted.

Communications, energy and natural resources: Currently Simon Coveney. I don’t expect any change. There doesn’t appear to be any other role suitable for him on the Front Bench. Many would argue he now only barely qualifies onto the Front Bench except for his location and political relations. Nevertheless he has done a fairly good job in the portfolio up to this point.

Overall: The full team…

Enda Kenny, Dr. James Reilly,  Michael Noonan, Alan Shatter, Richard Bruton, Dr. Leo Varadkar, David Stauton, Lucinda Creighton, John Deasy, Brian Hayes, Michael Ring, Jimmy Deenihan, Phil Hogan, Paul Kehoe, John Perry, Olwyn Enright, Kieran O’Donnell, Terrence Flanagan and Simon Coveney.

Notable absentee’s: Charlie Flanagan, Michael Creed, Olivia Mitchell, Billy Timmins, Fergus O’Dowd and Denis Naughton.

These are only my predictions (I wont get them all right) and I’ll update this if any new information comes to light…example: Richard Bruton comes out and says he definitely wont serve again!

Next week we will see what Enda Kenny comes up with and how close I was.

What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger? June 17, 2010

Posted by Scandalcentral in Current Affairs, FG, Politics, Topical.
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Unified once again?

Enda Kenny, as expected won the vote today on his leadership. No one appeared overly surprised that he won this evening. It is alleged he won by 6 votes, leaving the count at perhaps 38~32 ? It raises many questions for the future. The first major question is in relation to whether this does or doesn’t weaken Kenny. While all the front-bench may now say that they accept the result and will continue with their work, they will not be the one’s to decide. The people in the next opinion poll will decided. It could go either way. Support for Kenny may balloon with people believing he has showed strenght, character, fight and a desire to lead the country. It may also collapse if the public take the opinion that he is now damaged goods. Only time will tell on that one.

Listening to commentators over the last number of minutes they seem to believe this has strengthened Kenny, showing he has passion, fire and able to command his party. But serious questions still need to be answered. Perhaps they were addressed today at the meeting? I hope so, for the sake of politics. The first issue is why the party has been asleep. Canvassing seems to have ended. The party has been caught napping right across Dublin and Cork. It’s not only a shame on Enda Kenny, its a shame on people like Simon Coveney. The party is also at blame for its level of inaction on relation to retiring TD’s. Take Paddy Sheehan in Cork South West. A replacement is needed. The person who steps in will be up against several candidates from other parties who have a large profile. Local profile is so vital in Irish politics yet Fine Gael seems to have forgotten that. The party has been on holiday for the best year. Instead of doubling the work when at 38% in the polls they sat on their laurels. Now they lie back where they were in 2007. Its both unacceptable and embarrassing. It should also be pointed out that the local anger within FG supporters is substantial. Without doubt today’s vote doesn’t reflect the mood on the street within the Fine Gael membership. Will the members once again hit the streets to canvass after this?

The suggestion of a second rising against Kenny is being suggested by some commentators as a possibility. That is unlikely for it couldn’t now come from Richard Bruton. Someone like Simon Coveney is hated by large sections of the media and the party members now it, so that wouldn’t work. Other suggestions include Leo Varakar, however he doesn’t appear to have any relish for the job after he stayed well away from the spot light over the past week. It should also be noted that Leo would mark a change in direction for the party from Kenny’s progressive center back firmly to the right. It leads me to believe that there wont be a second or subsequent challenge to Kenny, at least not until Summer 2012- after the next General Election. The big question is can Kenny electrify the party once more? and is he now really stronger? or is he losing blood fast? Again, only time will tell… The next big question is to who will be chopped next Monday. Naturally Scandalcentral will have our predictions up in a while. Its a great opportunity to get rid of some dead wood ;)

Kenny-gate: Time for whiskey and revolver. June 15, 2010

Posted by Scandalcentral in Current Affairs, FG, Politics.
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Olywn: has supported Bruton, but has not yet commented.

It is tonight being speculated (but not yet confirmed) that Fine Gael front bencher’s Charles Flanagan and Alan Shatter are to meet with both Enda Kenny and Richard Bruton in an attempt to solve the dispute and end the crisis that is unfolding. This is seen as a very significant development. Shatter came out in favour of Kenny over the weekend, while Flanagan stayed on the fence saying he was not able to or willing to choose a side.(A very intelligent thing in hindsight) It looks clear now that they will attempt to get Kenny to stand down from his position to end the impasse that is growing over the leadership of the party.

Earlier Denis Naughton spoke of his dissatisfaction with Kenny, which he has had “for some time” It now leaves nine members of the front bench against Kenny including several high profilers like Leo Varadkar and Brian Hayes. Some in the media have suggested that Kenny can and may still win the leadership vote on Thursday. Kenny is planning to put together a new front bench on Monday. That is of course provided he wins the leadership challenge on Thursday. However the reality is that Fine Gael members will not accept a front bench without Leo Varadkar, Richard Bruton, Olivia Mitchell and Brian Hayes. If Kenny wins, the party’s future is at risk.

Enda Kenny earlier tabled a motion of no confidence in the Government. Sitting next to him was Dr. James Reilly. The motion will be voted on later and is sure to pass.

Brian Hayes this evening declared that “rebuilding the party and rebuilding this country are two separate things” and that they needed a leader with the confidence of both the public and the people. He described the view the public have taken as unfair but reality. He argued that Richard Bruton had the greatest credibility to be leader.

Enda suggested on RTÉ that if he wins on Thursday, that he may reinstate the old front bench next week.

If Enda is meeting with Shatter and Flanagan, it may very much be a case of whiskey and the gun. If Kenny doesn’t walk tonight, we will have to wait till Thursday for some fireworks!

Kenny loses support of front bench June 14, 2010

Posted by Scandalcentral in Current Affairs, FG, Politics.
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It has tonight been suggested that Enda Kenny will tomorrow be told at 11am, that he has lost the support of several key front bencher’s. Those suggested include the following: Simon Coveney, Leo Varadkar, Billy Timmins, Olwyn Enright, Fergus O’Dowd, Michael Creed, Olivia Mitchell, Brian Hayes. If this is in fact correct it surely spells the end of the Kenny reign at the helm of Fine Gael.

Richard Bruton tonight confirmed that himself and Enda had policy differences “all the time” At this stage it is still very unclear what way this power struggle will end up with.

Edit: Denis Naughton has also removed support of Kenny.

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