Election 2011: Cork: My Predictions (Part 2) February 26, 2011
Posted by Scandalcentral in Current Affairs, General Election 2011, Politics.Tags: CE, CNC, Election 2011, General Election 2011
2 comments
In the previous post I discussed the other Cork constituencies. Here I predict the rest.
Cork North Central
Fianna Fáil are in real trouble in CNC. Having won two seats in 2007, they now are facing a situation where they will be without a seat in the 31st Dáil. Polls last week were giving sole candidate Billy Kelleher just 13% of the vote. It’s my belief, that even though I do believe he is transfer toxic and will be scrapping it out, he will win the final seat. Kathleen Lynch will top the poll, despite her uselessness and will be followed by one of the Fine Gael candidates either Dara Murphy or Pat Burton. I personally believe Murphy is the better candidate and I’m assuming the voters of CNC will see this. The final seat will be taken by Sinn Féin’s Johnathan O’Brien. Labour’s John Gilroy is fancied by many due to the rise in Labour support in the constituency, however the failure of the party to manage the vote will mean in my opinion result in just one seat. For Fine Gael, I don’t believe they have the percentages to bring home two seats in North Central. While its possible, I think its unlikely.
Verdict: 1Lab, 1FF, 1FG, 1SF
Cork East
Cork East for most is a very exciting constituency mainly down to the fact that Fine Gael are running three candidates. The party currently has one TD in the form of David Stanton. I expect him to re-elected, more than likely on the first count. I do believe that there should be a second Fine Gael seat in the constituency, however I’m very unsure as to whether it will be Tom Barry or Pa O’Driscoll. Based on geographical issues I’m assuming it will be O’Driscoll. Labour’s Sean Sherlock is expected to attract a huge vote in Mallow. This will take from Barry’s vote and hence I believe that O’Driscoll will be ahead on the first count and that this should be enough. It should be noted that if Barry does lose out, there easily could be a lot of hurt people in the Barry clan, who were upset I’m sure when the Fine Gael party added O’Driscoll to the ticket. I’m expecting fireworks!
I don’t believe Labour will win a second seat, purely down to the gross error they have made in putting forward a candidate too old to connect to the electorate. They also have not managed their vote here at all in my opinion. I firmly belive that despite the poll’s Fianna Fáil will win a seat in Cork East. There have been suggestions that they wont, however I just can’t see that happen. Expect Michael Ahern to be ahead of Kevin O’Keeffe and to take the final seat.
Verdict: 2FG, 1FF, 1Lab
Closure of Post Office Becomes Election Issue! December 21, 2010
Posted by Scandalcentral in Current Affairs, General Election 2011, Local Politic's, Politics.Tags: Ballingeary Post Office, Cork North West, Election 2011, Fine Gael, General Election 2011, Michael Creed
2 comments
The controversy surrounding the proposed closure of Ballingeary Post Office has now become an election issue in Cork North West. Protests by locals has been ongoing over the last number of weeks after An Post announced that it was downgrading the local post office after the local postmaster announced retirement. An post will not replace the post master but instead offer a limited service in the area. This will mean that locals will no longer be able to pay their dog licences or tv licences. However vital services such as the pension service will be retained. An post will not hire a replacement on a wage as they feel that Inchigeela post office, which is 9 kilometers away is sufficient and there is not enough business in the rural town to justify a full time post office. Instead the post office will be paid on a per transaction basis.
Locals have reacted angrily to the news and have got local representatives involved in order to save the post office. Today Fine Gael TD Michael Creed wrote to An Post asking them to reconsider, pointing out that the Gaeltacht area needs it post-office “I would appeal to you to revisit this decision to downgrade services to Ballingeary. Ballingeary is unique in that it is a Gaeltacht village with different needs to that of non-Gaeltacht areas.” There is little doubt that a vibrant Gaeltacht is necessary in order to keep these regions alive.
The post office closure is now sure to be a key issue for voters in the Ballingeary area, one of Corks few mainland Gaeltacht area’s remaining.
Another Dinosaur heading for the door! December 21, 2010
Posted by Scandalcentral in Current Affairs, FG, General Election 2011, Politics.Tags: Brian Walsh, Eamon O'Cuiv, Election 2011, Fidelma Healy Eames, Fine Gael, General Election 2011, Glaway West, Padraig McCormack, Sean Kyne, Seosamh O'Laoi
4 comments
Fine Gael Galway West TD Padraig McCormack has finally announced that he will not be standing in the next General Election. The sitting TD and chairperson of the parliamentary party, failed to get the support of the Fine Gael membership at the selection convention in recent weeks and was thus deselected from standing for the party. Fine Gael headquarters offered the sitting TD the option of being added to the ticket, however McCormack has now decided to accept the wishes of the party membership and not contest the upcoming election.
Senator Fidelma Healy Eames and Councillor Brian Walsh were the two candidates selected at the party’s convention. It is still rumoured that the senior party may yet add two Gealtacht based candidates in order to counter-act the vote of Minister Eamon O’Cuiv, probably Cllr Sean Kyne and Seosamh O’ Laoi both based in Conamara. They collectively got in excess of 3,000 votes at the locals last year.
Fine Gael is aiming to win two seats in Galway West in the upcoming election. Fidelma Healy Eames will be expected to win a seat comfortably. However Brian Walsh is going to have to work very hard to win the final seat. If Cllr Sean Kyne is added to the ticket, it may very well mean that he may out-poll Walsh as he did in last years locals.
For McCormack, he can now look forward to his retirement after being a TD for 21 years. He offered the local party his best wishes “I wish the selected candidates and whoever will now be added to the ticket every success in the Election and with the unpopularity of the Government I believe we can win two seats to ensure that Fine Gael will form the next Government in the difficult years ahead for our country”
His departure now means that at least 20 sitting TD’s will now not be running for the next Dáil. Expect this to increase with Mary Harney and Bertie Ahern yet to decide on the future in politics.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/1221/breaking33.html
Beverly Flynn to retire! December 16, 2010
Posted by Scandalcentral in Current Affairs, General Election 2011, Politics.Tags: Beverly Flynn, Dara Colleary, Election 2011, Enda Kenny, General Election 2011, Jerry Crowley, John O'Mahony, Mayo, Michael Ring, Michelle Mulherin
1 comment so far
Beverly Flynn has announced she will not contest the next General Election. The Mayo TD won her seat back as an independent at the last General Election in 2007 after losing it in 2002. She was first elected in 1997. She is understood to be stepping down for personal reasons.
Deputy Flynn’s seat was under pressure in the upcoming election due to the continued rise of Fine Gael in Mayo. The departure of Mrs Flynn, now means that promising Fianna Fáil TD Dara Calleary will be likely to hold his seat. It also means that Fine Gael are now likely to win a forth seat in Mayo, as they have suggested possible in the past. They currently have three in party leader Enda Kenny, front bencher Michael Ring and since 2007 G.A.A man John O’Mahony. Michelle Mulherin who survived until the 7th count in 2007 will be expected to fight for the forth Fine Gael seat. While four seats out of five may seem highly unlikely for any party in any constituency, this feat is highly possible in Mayo, down to the fact that both party leader Enda Kenny along with shadow minister for Social Protection are both expected to get elected on the first count with a significant surplus to help get the other two candidates elected.
Labour in Mayo will try to win a seat with former indepedent Jerry Crowley. However its unclear as to whether he will be punished for jumping onto the Gilmore wagon.
Mayo Verdict: FG3 FF1 Lab V FG 1
Fine Gael confirms team for Dun Laoghaire December 15, 2010
Posted by Scandalcentral in Current Affairs, FG, General Election 2011, Politics.Tags: Dun Laoghaire, Election 2011, General Election 2011, Mary Mitchell O'Connor, Sean Barrett
3 comments
Further to my Dun Laoghaire predictions, Fine Gael have confirmed the two candidates for the General Election will be Sean Barrett TD and Cllr Mary Mitchell O’Connor. Sean Barrett will be expected to retain his seat. O’Connor has been a member of Dun Laoghaire- Rathdown Council since 2004, getting re-elected in 2009. Originally a PD, she changed to Fine Gael before the last local elections. She helped retain the two Fine Gael seats in the Dun Laoghaire area in 2009 and will be expected to put in a good effort in the upcoming election. O’Connor is a Primary School principal with a masters in education. She beat off John F Bailey, Barry Ward and Maria Baker. It’s rumoured that Bailey, who was the Fine Gael candidate in the past may run as an independent.
It’s still unlikely that Fine Gael will win two seats in this constituency, however a right wing determined female is never to be under estimated! One wonders as to whether the strategy of one male, one female is a good one. Nevertheless, due to the fact that both Labour and Fianna Fáil have a female candidate on the ticket, one would therefore expect Fine Gael to also do so, hence the female directive from HQ. It has been suggested to me that Barry Ward may yet be added to the ticket in order to help secure the second Fine Gael seat. It remains to be seen if this will happen.
http://scandalcentral.wordpress.com/2010/12/14/dl-ivana-bacik-tours-again/
