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Fine Gael confirms team for Carlow-Kilkenny June 26, 2010

Fine Gael last night confirmed it’s three candidates for the Carlow-Kilkenny constituency for the upcoming General Election. The three candidates are sitting TD Phil Hogan, Senator John Paul Phelan and as confirmed by scandalcentral exactly a month ago, Councillor Pat Deering. The selection convention took place in the Dolmen Hotel in Carlow where all three were nominated unopposed. The three candidate ticket signals serious intent from Fine Gael to win as many seats as possible in this key constituency.  Traditionally the constituency has been dominated by Fine and Fianna Fail. Fianna Fail currently have three seats along with the Green Party’s Mary “Bloodsports” White. This clearly indicates that there are several seats there to be won. Most predict Mary White to be in serious trouble, not only due to her position on coursing but also down to the poor Green performance in Government in recent years. For Fianna Fail, it is very much a case of every man for himself. Their three seats will definitely shrink too two, there is even a possibility of them returning with just one seat!  I personally see John McGuinness as being safe. Himself and Fine Gael TD Phil Hogan have both comfortably got elected on the Kilkenny side for some time, that wont change this time around. Certainly McGuinness’s huge personal vote may drop from a full quota to a little less, but I can’t see him not being returned to the 31st Dáil. For Fianna Fail the battle will be between M.J Nolan and Bobby Aylward. Aylward is also from Kilkenny, but last time out surprised all by returning with a full quota. However this is now expected to diminish quite rapidly. It does swing the seat towards Nolan who is based in Carlow. However Nolan himself didn’t poll overly impressive last time around, getting  just 0.8 of a quota. Nolan has lost his seat before (1997), I expect him to be squeezed tight again this time around. Either way one of the two wont be signing into the 31st Dáil. This largely depends on the location of the opposition.

Fine Gael’s John Paul Phelan is expected to make the breakthrough this time around. He ran for the first time in 2007 and received 9.6% of the vote. It should be noted that on 1st preferences, this was greater than Mary “Bloodsports” White and greater than the whole combined Labour vote. He subsequently ran for the European elections last year, not down to having a hope of being elected but to raise his profile and  ensure he remains a household name.  It must be remembered that at last year’s election he finished 4th in the 3 seater, so he wasn’t far off that plush job in Europe! Phelan is based in Kilkenny, which is becoming a crucial battle ground for all parties in the 31st Dáil. This is the reason why I believe Bobby Aylward to be in serious trouble. It may happen that both Aylward and McGuinness will both be squeezed, but it may equally happen that McGuinness’s vote will hold up leaving Aylward to the hounds. This Kilkenny battle then gives hope to Nolan in Carlow… Phelan will win a seat, especially with the great team he has with his sister Catherine working as a local Councillor keeping the Phelan name on everyone’s tongue.

The Carlow battle will be equally as thrilling. Mary White has been given Minister status by the Green Party in an attempt to save her seat. Their big personal worry is that it wont take much effort to de-seat her!  The Green’s were popular in 2007 yet she only managed 7.96%, not getting elected until the 9th count. She finished only 600 votes ahead of John Paul Phelan. Therefore she is right to be seriously worried about her political future.  Fine Gael have strategically selected Councillor Pat Deering who lives in Carlow to contest the election. He will be competing with both White and Fianna Fail’s Nolan. The absence of the PD’s may also hurt Nolan, who received half of the PD transfers in 2007. Deering based in Tullow should poll a lot better than many predict. His comments on the Green Party in recent months show he is ready to take on the Green Challenge. His chances of getting elected are relatively slim overall, but if the FF vote was to collapse (Which I don’t think it will) along with a Green whitewash, then suddenly he may be in the right place at the right time. However the person to be in that place would probably be Labour. In recent years they have run a candidate in both counties, the strategy didn’t win them a seat in 2002 or 2007. However in theory they should have done a lot better. Between their two candidates they had more votes than Mary White and not much less than Phelan. This, along with the fact that fellow lefties Sinn Féin also run two candidates who traditionally transfer to Labour , this should mean that a Labour seat should have been there in the past. The fact is, for whatever reason, is that it wasn’t. This time around it should be as long as their two candidates transfer strongly unlike 2007!

Overall this is going to be a very interesting constituency, with a lot at stake for all the parties. It is also very much a  geographical battle to ensure transfer’s do actually transfer to fellow running mates. My (Very early) prediction is FG2, FF2, LAB 1 …with Labour winning the last seat off Mary White by a hand-full of votes…